UPDATE: About the ARG pollMay 2, 2007
Regarding the American Research Group poll released Tuesday, we found an acute trend worth its own post. Upon further examination, it is very interesting to note that this poll is the first crystal-clear indicator of where Fred Thompson is pulling his base.
While John McCain gained a percentage point between February and April, Giuliani lost six and Gingrich lost four. Thompson rose 10 points – the exact total of the Giuliani/Gingrich loss.
If Thompson enters the race, according to this data, he will pull his support DIRECTLY from Giuliani and Gingrich. We have all known for months that if Thompson jumps in, his base will consist largely of Giuliani and Gingrich expatriates, but this is the first concrete, concise, statistical data that shows it.