Archive for the ‘Polls’ Category

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UPDATE: About the ARG poll

May 2, 2007

Regarding the American Research Group poll released Tuesday, we found an acute trend worth its own post. Upon further examination, it is very interesting to note that this poll is the first crystal-clear indicator of where Fred Thompson is pulling his base.

While John McCain gained a percentage point between February and April, Giuliani lost six and Gingrich lost four. Thompson rose 10 points – the exact total of the Giuliani/Gingrich loss.

If Thompson enters the race, according to this data, he will pull his support DIRECTLY from Giuliani and Gingrich. We have all known for months that if Thompson jumps in, his base will consist largely of Giuliani and Gingrich expatriates, but this is the first concrete, concise, statistical data that shows it.

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Polls show strong McCain lead in SC, NH, IA

March 24, 2007

McCain S.C. reported last Sunday that Sen. John McCain held a seven point lead in South Carolina over ex-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The Politico’s Jonathan Martin Friday covered a new poll by the American Research Group showing similar McCain leads in New Hampshire and Iowa.

In Iowa, ARG now has McCain and Rudy tied at 29%… McCain leads Giuliani 39%-30% among Independents in the Hawkeye State.

In New Hampshire, ARG has McCain at 23% to Rudy’s 19%. Among Indepdenents there — the folks who powered the maverick to victory in the 2000 New Hampshire primary — McCain’s lead over Rudy grows to 33%-22%.

McCain’s strong polling in New Hampshire (the first primary state), Iowa (the first caucus state) and South Carolina (the first southern primary state) solidifies his “frontrunner” status. The numbers show that McCain’s grassroots campaign is resonating with voters in the three states with the most influence in determining the GOP nominee.


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Poll: McCain winning in S.C.

March 14, 2007

Dan Hoover at Greenville Online Wednesday wrote that, “Arizona Sen. John McCain… remains first in the hearts of his South Carolina countrymen.” Hoover’s statement was based off a Feb. 23-27 poll by the American Research Group which showed McCain at 35 percent to Giuliani’s 28 percent. The poll was taken among 600 likely GOP presidential primary voters in South Carolina and had a margin of error of four percentage points.

And against Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), the top Democratic contender, McCain fared even better:

In ARG’s separate head-to-head match-up of McCain and Clinton it was a 52-32 McCain rout. The poll of 1,200 likely primary voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

What does it mean? Hoover opined:

For second-tier and lower Republicans, the poll wasn’t good news.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remained mired in the mid-single digits, registering 5 percent, the same as in December. Coming in at 1 percent were former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, U.S. Reps. Duncan Hunter of California and Tom Tancredo of Colorado.


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